ORB survey compared with Lancet studies Lancet surveys of Iraq War casualties

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on september 14, 2007, orb (opinion research business), independent uk based polling agency, published estimate of total casualties of iraq war. figure suggested orb, based on survey responses 1,499 adults, stands @ 1,220,580 deaths, margin of error of 2.5%. estimate, although conducted independently, , using different polling methodology, consistent lancet findings if accounting additional 14 months covered orb poll.


on 28 january 2008, orb published update based on additional work carried out in rural areas of iraq. 600 additional interviews undertaken , result of death estimate revised 1,033,000 given range of 946,000 1,120,000.


this orb poll estimate came under criticism in peer reviewed paper called conflict deaths in iraq: methodological critique of orb survey estimate , published in journal survey research methods. paper finds fundamental flaws in data underpinning orb’s estimate , , concludes orb data not suitable deriving credible estimate but, given proper scrutiny, clear orb has overestimated wide margin.








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